Expecting the Unexpected: Essays on Strategic Surprises in the 21st Century
The aim of this proceeding is to present essays on the theme of “strategic surprise” from leading scholars and practitioners in a way that is readily digestible by lay and policy audiences. The volume asks contributors to consider what international relations and foreign policy issues are not receiving enough attention in the national security community—whether because they have been incorrectly judged as exceptionally unlikely, as not having major consequences, or as unimportant. The scope applies to missed threats as well as missed opportunities, whether in terms of regional focus, types of actors, or types of events. The goal of the volume is to tackle these problems by thinking creatively and questioning assumptions, while staying within the context of today’s political realities. In this way, it hopes to contribute to policymakers’ strategic foresight as they look over the horizon of the coming decades.